This is the Full Transcript of the Article written by Former CBN Governor, Charles Soludo. It Addresses everything we all need to think about as we prepare to go to the Polls come February, 14, 2015.A few days ago, I read an article in Thisday entitled “Where is Charles Soludo?”, and my answer is that I am still there, only that I have been too busy with extensive international travels to participate in or comment on our national politics and economy. But I occasionally follow events at home. Since the survival and prosperity of Nigeria are at stake, the least some of us (albeit, non-partisan) must do is to engage in public debate. As the elections approach, I owe a duty to share some of my concerns.
In September 2010, I wrote a piece entitled “2011 Elections: Let the
Real Debate Begin” and published by Thisday. I understand the Federal
Executive Council discussed it, and the Minister of Information rained
personal attacks on me during the press briefing. I noted more than six
newspaper editorials in support of the issues we raised. Beside other
issues we raised, our main thesis was that the macro economy was
dangerously adrift, with little self-insurance mechanisms (and a
prediction that if oil prices fell below $40, many state governments
would not be able to pay salaries). I gave a subtle hint at easy money
and exchange rate depreciations because I did not want to panic the
market with a strong statement. Sadly, on the eve of the next elections,
literally everything we hinted at has happened. Part of my motivation
for this article is that five years after, the real debate is still not
happening.
The
presidential election next month will be won by either Buhari or
Jonathan. For either, it is likely to be a pyrrhic victory. None of them
will be able to deliver on the fantastic promises being made on the
economy, and if oil prices remain below $60, I see very difficult months
ahead, with possible heady collisions with labour, civil society, and
indeed the citizenry. To be sure, the presidential election will not be
decided by the quality of ‘issues’ or promises canvassed by the
candidates. The debates won’t also change much (except if there is a
major gaffe by either candidate like Tofa did in the debate with
Abiola). My take is that more than 95% of the likely voters have pretty
much made up their minds based largely on other considerations. A few of
us remain undecided. During my brief visit to Nigeria, I watched some
of the campaign rallies on television. The tragedy of the current
electioneering campaigns is that both parties are missing the golden
opportunity to sensitize the citizenry about the enormous challenges
ahead and hence mobilize them for the inevitable sacrifices they would
be called upon to make soon. Each is promising an El-Dorado.
Let me admit that the two main parties talk around the major
development challenges—corruption, insecurity, economy
(unemployment/poverty, power, infrastructure, etc) health, education,
etc. However, it is my considered view that none of them has any
credible agenda to deal with the issues, especially within the context
of the evolving global economy and Nigeria’s broken public finance. The
UK Conservative Party’s manifesto for the last election proudly
announced that all its programmes were fully costed and were therefore
implementable. Neither APC nor PDP can make a similar claim. A plan
without the dollar or Naira signs to it is nothing but a wish-list. They
are not telling us how much each of their promises will cost and where
they will get the money. None talks about the broken or near bankrupt
public finance and the strategy to fix it.
In
response to the question of where the money will come from, I heard one
of the politicians say that the problem of Nigeria was not money but
the management of resources. This is half-truth. The problem is both. No
matter how efficient a father (with a monthly salary of N50,000) is at
managing the family resources, I cannot see how he could deliver on a
promise to buy a brand new Peugeot 406 for each of his three children in
a year. Even with all the loopholes and waste closed, with increased
efficiency per dollar spent, there is still a binding budget constraint.
To deliver an efficient national transport infrastructure alone will
still cost tens of billions of dollars per annum even by
corruption-free, cost-effective means. Did I hear that APC promises a
welfare system that will pay between N5,000 and N10,000 per month to the
poorest 25 million Nigerians? Just this programme alone will cost
between N1.5 and N3 trillion per annum. Add to this the cost of free
primary education plus free meal (to be funded by the federal budget or
would it force non-APC state governments to implement the same?), plus
some millions of public housing, etc.
I
have tried to cost some of the promises by both the APC and the PDP,
given alternative scenarios for public finance and the numbers don’t add
up. Nigerians would be glad to know how both parties would fund their
programmes. Do they intend to accentuate the huge public debt, or raise
taxes on the soon to-be-beleaguered private businesses, or massively
devalue the naira to rake in baskets of naira from the dwindling oil
revenue, or embark on huge fiscal retrenchment with the sack of labour
and abandonment of projects, and which areas of waste do they intend to
close and how much do they estimate to rake in from them, etc? I
remember that Chief Obafemi Awolowo was asked similar questions in 1978
and 1979 about his promises of free education and free medical services.
Even as a teenager, I was impressed by how he reeled out figures about
the amounts he would save from various ‘waste’ including the tea/coffee
served in government offices. The point is that at least he did his
homework and had his numbers and I give credit to his team. Some 36
years later, the quality of political debate and discourse seems to
border on the pedestrian. From the quality of its team, I did not expect
much from the current government, but I must confess that I expected
APC as a party aspiring to take over from PDP to come up with a
knock-out punch. Evidently, from what we have read from the various
versions of its manifesto as well as the depth of promises being made,
it does not seem that it has a better offer.
Let me digress a bit to refresh our memory on where we are, and thus
provide the context in which to evaluate the promises being made to us.
Recall that the key word of the 2015 budget is ‘austerity’. Austerity?
This is just within a few months of the fall in oil prices. History
repeats itself in a very cruel way, as this was exactly what happened
under the Shehu Shagari administration. Under the Shagari government,
oil price reached its highest in 1980/81. During the same period,
Nigeria ratcheted up its consumption and all tiers of government were in
competition as to which would out-borrow the other. Huge public debt
was the consequence. When oil prices crashed in early 1982, the National
Assembly then passed the Economic Stabilization (Austerity Measures)
Act in one day--- going through the first, second, and third readings
the same day. The austerity measures included the rationing of
‘essential commodities’ and most states owed salary arrears. Corruption
was said to be pervasive, and as Sani Abacha said in that famous coup
speech, ‘unemployment has reached unacceptable proportions and our
hospitals have become mere consulting clinics’. General Muhammadu
Buhari/Tunde Idiagbon regime made the fight against corruption and
restoration of discipline the cardinal point of their administration
which lasted for 20 months. I am not sure they had a credible plan to
get the economy out of the doldrums (although it must be admitted that
poverty incidence in Nigeria as of 1985 when they left office was a
just46%--- according to the Federal Office of Statistics).
We have come full circle. If the experience under Shagari could be
excused as an unexpected shock, what Nigeria is going through now is a
consequence of our deliberate wrong choices. We have always known that
the unprecedented oil boom (in both price and quantity—despite oil
theft) of the last six years is temporary but the government chose to
treat it as a permanent shock. The parallels with the Shagari regime are
troubling. First, at the time of oil boom, Nigeria again went on a
consumption spree such that the budgets of the last five years can best
be described as ‘consumption budgets’, with new borrowing by the federal
government exceeding the actual expenditure on critical infrastructure.
Second, not one penny was added to the stock of foreign reserves at a
period Nigeria earned hundreds of billions from oil. For comparisons,
President Obasanjo met about $5 billion in foreign reserves, and the
average monthly oil price for the 72 months he was in office was $38,
and yet he left $43 billion in foreign reserves after paying $12 billion
to write-off Nigeria’s external debt. In the last five years, the
average monthly oil price has been over $100, and the quantity also
higher but our foreign reserves have been declining and exchange rate
depreciating.
I note that when I assumed office as Governor of CBN, the stock of
foreign reserves was $10 billion. The average monthly oil price during
my 60 months in office was $59, but foreign reserve reached the all-time
peak of $62 billion (and despite paying $12 billion for external debt,
and losing over $15 billion during the unprecedented global financial
and economic crisis) I left behind $45 billion. Recall also that our
exchange rate continuously appreciated during this period and was at
N117 to the dollar before the global crisis and we deliberately allowed
it to depreciate in order to preserve our reserves. My calculation is
that if the economy was better managed, our foreign reserves should have
been between $102 --$118 billion and exchange rate around N112 before
the fall in oil prices. As of now, the reserves should be around $90
billion and exchange rate no higher than N125 per dollar.
Third,
the rate of public debt accumulation at a time of unprecedented boom
had no parallel in the world. While the Obasanjo administration bought
and enlarged the policy space for Nigeria, the current government has
sold and constricted it. What debt relief did for Nigeria was to
liberate Nigerian policymakers from the intrusive conditionalities of
the creditors and thereby truly allowing Nigeria independence in its
public policy. How have we used the independence? Through our own
choices, we have yet again tied the hands of future policymakers. This
time, the debt is not necessarily to foreign creditor
institutions/governments which are organized under the Paris club but
largely to private agents which is even more volatile. We call it
domestic debt. But if one carefully unpacks the bond portfolio, what
percentage of it is held by foreign private agents? And I understand the
Government had removed the speed bumps we kept to slow the speed of
capital flight, and someone is sweating to explain the gyrations in
foreign reserves. I am just smiling!
In sum, the mismanagement of our economy has brought us once more to
the brink. Government officials rely on the artificial construct of debt
to GDP ratio to tell us we can borrow as much as we want. That is
nonsense, especially for an economy with a mono but highly volatile
source of revenue and forex earnings. The chicken will soon come home to
roost. Today, the combined domestic and external debt of the Federal
Government is in excess of $40 billion. Add to this the fact that
abandoned capital projects littered all over the country amount to over
$50 billion. No word yet on other huge contingent liabilities. If oil
prices continue to fall, I bet that Nigeria will soon have a heavy debt
burden even with low debt to GDP ratio. Furthermore, given the current
and capital account regime, it is evident that Nigeria does not have
enough foreign reserves to adequately cover for imports plus short term
liabilities. In essence, we are approaching the classic of what the
Shagari government faced, and no wonder the hasty introduction of
‘austerity measures’ again.
Fourth, poverty incidence and unemployment are also simultaneously at
all-time high levels. According to the NBS, poverty incidence grew to
69% in 2010 and projected to be 71% in 2011, with unemployment at 24%.
This is the worst record in Nigeria’s history, and the paradox is that
this happened during the unprecedented oil boom.
One
theme I picked up listening to the campaign rallies as well as to some
of the propagandists is the confusion about measuring government
“performance”. Most people seem to confuse ‘inputs’, or ‘processes’ with
output. Earlier this month, I had a dinner with a group of friends (14
of us) and we were chit-chatting about Nigeria. One of us, an associate
of President Jonathan veered off to repeat a propaganda mantra that
Jonathan had outperformed his predecessors. He also reminded us that
Jonathan re-based the GDP and that Nigeria is now the biggest economy in
Africa; etc. It was fun listening to the response by others. In sum,
the group agreed that the President had ‘outperformed’ his predecessors
except that it is in reverse order. First, my friend was educated that
re-basing the GDP is no achievement: it is a routine statistical
exercise, and depending on the base year that you choose, you get a
different GDP figure. Re-basing the GDP has nothing to do with
government policy. Besides, as naira-dollar exchange rate continues to
depreciate, the GDP in current dollars will also shrink considerably
soon.
We
were reminded of Jonathan’s agricultural ‘revolution’. But someone cut
in and noted that for all the propaganda, the growth rate of the
agricultural sector in the last five years still remains far below the
performance under Obasanjo. One of us reminded him that no other
president had presided over the slaughter of about 15,000 people by
insurgents in a peacetime; no other president earned up to 50% of the
amount of resources the current government earned from oil and yet with
very little outcomes; no other president had the rate of borrowing; none
had significant forex earnings and yet did not add one penny to foreign
reserves but losing international reserves at a time of boom; no other
president had a depreciating exchange rate at a time of export boom; at
no time in Nigeria’s history has poverty reached 71% (even under Abacha,
it was 67 -70%); and under no other president did unemployment reach
24%. Surely, these are unprecedented records and he surely
‘outperformed’ his predecessors! What a satire!
One
of those present took the satire to some level by comparing Jonathan to
the ‘performance’ of the former Governor of Anambra, Peter Obi. He
noted that while Obi gloated about ‘savings’, there is no signature
project to remember his regime except that his regime took the first
position among all states in Nigeria in the democratization of
poverty---- mass impoverishment of the people of Anambra. According to
the National Bureau of Statistics, poverty rose under his watch in
Anambra from 20% in 2004 (lowest in Nigeria then) to 68% in 2010 (a 238%
deterioration!). Our friend likened it to a father who had no idea of
what to do with his resources and was celebrating his fat bank account
while his children were dying of kwashiorkor. He pointed out that since
it is the likes of Peter Obi who are the advisers to Jonathan on how to
manage the economy (thereby confusing micromanagement which you do as a
trader with macro governance) it is little wonder that poverty is fast
becoming another name for Nigeria. It was a very hilarious evening.
My
advice to President Jonathan and his handlers is to stop wasting their
time trying to campaign on his job record. Those who have decided to
vote for him will not do so because he has taken Nigeria to the moon.
His record on the economy is a clear ‘F’ grade. As one reviews the
laundry list of micro interventions the government calls its
achievements, one wonders whether such list is all that the government
could deliver with an unprecedented oil boom and an unprecedented public
debt accumulation. I can clearly see why reasonable people are
worried. Everywhere else in the world, government performance on the
economy is measured by some outcome variables such as: income (GDP
growth rate), stability of prices (inflation and exchange rate),
unemployment rate, poverty rate, etc. On all these scores, this
government has performed worse than its immediate predecessor---
Obasanjo regime. If we appropriately adjust for oil income and debt,
then this government is the worst in our history on the economy. All
statistics are from the National Bureau of Statistics.
Despite presiding over the biggest oil boom in our history, it has
not added one percentage point to the growth rate of GDP compared to the
Obasanjo regime especially the 2003- 07 period. Obasanjo met GDP
growth rate at 2% but averaged 7% within 2003- 07. The current
government has been stuck at 6% despite an unprecedented oil boom.
Income (GDP) growth has actually performed worse, and poverty escalated.
This is the only government in our history where rapidly increasing
government expenditure was associated with increasing poverty. The
director general of NBS stated in his written press conference address
in 2011 that about 112 million Nigerians were living in poverty. Is this
the record to defend? Obama had a tough time in his re-election in
2012 because unemployment reached 8%. Here, unemployment is at a record
24% and poverty at an all-time 71% but people are prancing around,
gloating about ‘performance’. As I write, the Naira exchange rate to the
dollar is $210 at the parallel market. What a historic performance!
Please save your breathe and save us the embarrassment. The President
promised Nigeria nothing in the last election and we did not get value
for money. He should this time around present us with his plan for the
future, and focus on how he would redeem himself in the second term—if
he wins!
Sadly the government’s economic team is very weak, dominated by
self-interested and self-conflicted group of traders and businessmen,
and so-called economic team meetings have been nothing but showbiz time.
The very people government exists to regulate have seized the levers of
government as policymakers and most government institutions have
largely been “privatized” to them. Mention any major government
department or agency and someone will tell you whom it has been
‘allocated’ to, and the person subsequently nominates his minion to
occupy the seat. What do you then expect? The economy seems to be on
auto pilot, with confusion as to who is in charge, and government
largely as a constraint. There are no big ideas, and it is difficult to
see where economic policy is headed to. My thesis is that the Nigerian
economy, if properly managed, should have been growing at an annual rate
of about 12% given the oil boom, and poverty and unemployment should
have fallen dramatically over the last five years. This is topic for
another day.
So far, the Government’s response to the self-inflicted crisis is, at
best, laughable. They blame external shocks as if we did not expect
them and say nothing about the terrible policy choices they made. The
National Assembly had described the 2015 budget as unrealistic. The
fiscal adjustments proposed in the 2015 budget simply play to the
gallery and just to pander to our emotions. For a $540 billion economy,
the so-called luxury tax amounts to zero per cent of GDP. If the
current trend continues, private businesses will come under a heavy
crunch soon. Having put economics on its head during the boom time, the
Government now proposes to increase taxes during a prospective downturn
and impose austerity measures. Unbelievable!
Fortuitously, just as he succeeded Shagari when Nigeria faced similar
situations, Buhari is once more seeking to lead Nigeria. But times have
changed, and Nigeria is largely different. First, this is a democracy
and dealing with corruption must happen within the ambit of the rule of
law and due process. Getting things done in a democracy requires
complicated bargaining, especially where the legislature, labour, the
media, and civil society have become strong and entrenched. Second,
the size, structure and institutions of the economy have fundamentally
altered. The market economy, especially the capital market and foreign
exchange market, impose binding constraints and discipline on any
regime. Third, dealing with most of the other issues--- insecurity,
unemployment/poverty, infrastructure, health, education, etc, require
increased, smarter, and more efficient spending. Increased spending when
the economy is on the reverse gear?
If oil prices remain between 40- 60 dollars over the next two years,
the current policy regime guarantees that foreign reserves will continue
the precipitous depletion with the attendant exchange rate
depreciation, as well as a probable unsustainable escalation in debt
accumulation, fiscal retrenchment or taxing the private sector with
vengeance. The scenario does not look pretty. The poor choices made by
the current government have mortgaged the future, and the next
government would have little room to manoeuvre and would inevitably
undertake drastic but painful structural adjustments. Nigerians loathe
the term ‘structural adjustment’. With falling real wages and
depreciating currency, I can see any belated attempt by the government
to deal with the bloated public sector pitching it against a feisty
labour. I worry about regime stability in the coming months, and I do
not envy the next team.
The seeming crisis is not destiny; it is self-imposed. However, we
must see it as an opportunity to be seized to fundamentally restructure
Nigeria’s political economy, including its fiscal federalism and mineral
rights. The current system guarantees cycles of consumption loop and I
cannot see sustainable long term prosperity without major systemic
overhaul. The proposals at the national conference merely tinker at the
margins. In totality, the outcome of the national conference is to do
more of the same, with minor amendments on the system of sharing and
consumption rather than a fundamental overhaul of the system for
productivity and prosperity. President Jonathan promises to implement
the report of the national conference if he wins. I commend him for at
least offering ‘something’, albeit, marginal in my view. I have not
heard anything from the APC or Buhari regarding the national conference
report or what kind of federalism they envisage for Nigeria.
In
Nigeria’s recent history, two examples under the military and civilian
governments demonstrate that where the political will exists, Nigeria
has the capacity to overcome severe challenges. The first was under
President Babangida. Not many Nigerians appreciate that given the near
bankrupt state of Nigeria’s finances and requirements for debt
resolution under the Paris Club, the country had little choice but to
undertake the painful structural adjustment programme (SAP). I want to
state for the record that the foundation for the current market economy
we operate in Nigeria was laid by that regime (liberalization of markets
including market determined exchange rate, private sector-led economy
including licensing of private banks and insurance, de-regulation,
privatization of public enterprises under TCPC, etc). Just abolishing
the import licensing regime was a fundamental policy revolution. Despite
the criticisms, these policy thrusts have remained the pillars of our
deepening market economy, and the economy recovered from almost negative
growth rate to average 5.5% during the regime and poverty incidence at
42% in 1992.
Under
our democratic experience, President Obasanjo inherited a bankrupt
economy (with the lost decade of the 1990’s GDP growth rate of 2.2% and
hence zero per capita income growth for the decade). His regime
consolidated and deepened the market economy structures (consolidation
of the banking system which is powering the emergence of a new but truly
private sector-led economy and simultaneously led to a new awareness
and boom in the capital market; telecommunications revolution; new
pension regime; debt relief which won for Nigeria policy independence
from the World Bank and Paris Club; deepening of de-regulation and
privatization including the unbundling of NEPA under PHCN for
privatization; agricultural revolution that saw yearly growth rate of
over 6% and remains unsurpassed ever since; sound monetary and fiscal
policy and growing foreign reserves that gave confidence to investors;
establishment of the Africa Finance Corporation which is leading
infrastructure finance in Africa; backward integration policy that saw
the establishment and growth of Dangote cement and others; established
ICPC and EFCC to fight corruption, etc). The economy roared to average
yearly growth of 7% between 2003 and 2007 (although average monthly oil
price under his regime was $38), and poverty dropped from estimated 70%
in1999 to 54% in 2004. Obasanjo was his own coordinating minister of
the economy and chairman of the economic management team--- which he
chaired for 90 minutes every week. I met with him daily. In other
words, he did not outsource economic management.
We
expected that the next government after Obasanjo would take the economy
to the next level. So far, we have had two great slogans: the 7-point
agenda and currently, the transformation agenda. They remain empty
slogans without content or direction.
Let
me suggest that the fundamental challenge for the next government on
the economy can be framed around the goal of creating twelve million
jobs over the next four years to have a dent on unemployment and
poverty. The challenge is to craft a development agenda to deliver this
within the context of broken public finance, and an economy in which
painful structural adjustments will be inevitable if current trends in
oil prices continue. Most other programmes on corruption, security,
power, infrastructure, etc, are expected to be instruments to achieve
this objective.
So
far, neither the APC nor the PDP has a credible programme for
employment and poverty reduction. The APC promises to create 20,000 jobs
per state in the first year, totalling a mere 720,000 jobs. This
sounds like a quota system and for a country where the new entrants into
the labour market per annum exceed two million. If it was intended as a
joke, APC must please get serious. On the other hand, President
Jonathan targets two million jobs per annum but his strategy for doing
so is a Job Board--- another committee of sort. Sorry, Mr. President, a
Job Board is not a strategy. The principal job Nigerians hired you to
do for them is to create jobs for them too. You cannot outsource that
job, Sir. Creating 3 million jobs per annum under the unfolding crisis
would task our creativity and audacity to the limits.
I heard one politician argue that once we fix power, private sector
would create jobs. Not necessarily! Well, this government claims to have
added 1,700MW to the national grid and yet unemployment soars. Ask
Greece, Spain, etc with power and infrastructure and yet with high
unemployment. Structural dislocations play a key role. For example,
currently in Nigeria, it is estimated that more than 60% of graduates of
our educational system are unemployable. You can understand why many of
us are amused when the government celebrates that it has established
twelve more glorified secondary schools as universities. I thought they
would have told us how many Nigerian universities made it in the league
of the best 200 universities in the world. That would have been an
achievement. Surely, creating millions of jobs in this economy would,
among other things, require ‘new money’ and extraordinary system of
coordination among the three tiers of government plus the private
sector. Unfortunately, from what I read, the CBN is largely likely to be
asleep at this time the country needs the most revolutionary finance.
This is a topic for another day. Only the President can lead this
effort. Moreover, we are waiting for the two parties/candidates to spell
out HOW they will create jobs, whether it is the 20,000 jobs per state
by APC or 2 million per annum by President Jonathan. Let us know how
you arrived at the figures. Whichever of the two that is declared winner
will have his job cut out for him, and I expect him to declare a
national emergency on job creation.
Surprisingly, none of the parties/candidates has any grand vision
about African economic integration, led by Nigeria. There is no
programme on how to make the naira the de facto currency of ECOWAS or
the international financial centre that can attract more than $100
billion per annum. Where is the strategy for orchestrating the
revolutionary finance to power the economy during this downturn? For
President Jonathan, I find it shocking that the most important
initiative of his government to secure the future of the economy by
Nigeria refusing to sign the ruinous Economic Partnership Agreement
(EPA) with the European Union is not even being mentioned. President
Obasanjo saved Nigeria from the potential ruin of an ECOWAS single
currency while to his credit Jonathan safeguarded our industrial
sector/economy by refusing to sign the EPA. Or does the government not
understand the import of that? It will be interesting to know the APC’s
strategy for exploiting strategic alliances within Africa, China, and
the world for Nigeria’s prosperity.
If Buhari wins, he will ride on the populist wind for “change”. Most
people I have spoken to who have decided to vote for Buhari do not
necessarily know the specifics of what he would offer or how Nigeria
would be different under him. I asked my driver, Usman, whom he would
vote for President. He responded: “If they no rig the election, na
Buhari everybody go vote for”. I asked him why, and his next response
sums it: “The man dey honest. In short, people just want to see another
face for that villa”. But if he wins, the honeymoon will be brief and
the pressure will be immense to magically deliver a ‘new Nigeria’ with
no corruption, no boko haram or insecurity, jobs for everyone, no
poverty, infrastructure and power in abundance, etc. As a first point,
Buhari and his team must realize that they do not yet have a coherent,
credible agenda that is consistent with the fundamentals of the economy
currently. The APC manifesto contains some good principles and
wish-lists, but as a blue print for Nigeria’s security and prosperity,
it is largely hollow. The numbers do not add up. Thus, his first job is
to present a credible development agenda to Nigerians.
The
second key challenge for Buhari and his team will be to transit and
transform from a group of what I largely refer to as aggrieved people’s
congregation to build a true political party with a soul from the
patchwork of political associations. It is surely easier to oppose than
to govern. This should not worry us much. After all, even the PDP which
has been in power for 16 years is still an assembly of people held
together by what I refer to as dining table politics. I am not sure how
many members can tell you what their party stands for or its mission and
vision for Nigeria. The third but more difficult agenda is cobbling
together a truly ‘progressive team’ that will begin to pick the pieces.
The lesson of history is that the best leaders have been the ones who
went beyond their narrow provincial enclaves to recruit talents and
mobilize capacities for national transformation. In Nigeria’s history,
the two presidents who made the most fundamental transformation of the
economy, Babangida and Obasanjo, were exceptional in the quality of the
teams they put together. I therefore pray that Buhari will be
magnanimous in victory – if he wins—to put together a ‘team Nigeria’ for
the rescue mission.
If Jonathan wins, then God must have been magnanimous to give him a
second chance to redeem himself. Most people I know who support Jonathan
do so either out of self-interest or fear of the unknown. As a friend
summed it: the devil you know is better than the angel you do not know.
One person assured me that we would see a ‘different Jonathan’ if he
wins as he has been rattled by the harsh judgment of history on his
presidency so far. I just pray that he is right. In that case, I would
just draw the President’s attention to two issues:
First, beside the coterie of clowns who literally make a living with
the sing-song of transformation agenda, President Jonathan must know
that it remains an empty slogan. His greatest challenge is how to save
himself from the stranglehold of his largely provincial palace jesters
who tell him he has done better than God, and seek out ‘enemies’ and
friends who can help him write his name in history. Propaganda won’t do
it.
Second, Jonathan must claw back his powers as President of Nigeria.
He largely outsourced them, and must now roll his sleeves for a new
beginning. I take liberty to tell you this brutal truth: if you are not
re-elected, there is little to remember your regime after the next few
years. On 7th January 2004, I made a special presentation to an
expanded economic management team to set agenda for the new year (as
chief economic adviser). The focus of my presentation was for us to
identify seven iroko trees that would be the flagship markers for the
administration as well as how to finance them. I use the same framework
to evaluate your administration. What I say to you, Mr. President, is
that your record of performance so far is like a farmland filled with
grasses. Yes, they are many but there is no tree, let alone any iroko
tree, that stands out. Think about this. The beginning of wisdom for
every President in his second term is to admit that he is racing against
time to cement his legacy. So far, your report card is not looking
great. You need a team of big and bold thinkers, as well as with
excellent execution capacity. So far, it is not working!
Under the executive presidential system, Nigerians elected you to
manage their economy. You cannot outsource that job. Our constitution
envisages a federal coordination of the economy, and that function is
performed by the National Economic Council (NEC) with Vice-President as
chairman. Indeed, the constitution and other laws of Nigeria envisage
the office of the VP as the coordinator on the economy. All major
economic institutions of the federal government are, by law, chaired by
the Vice-President including the national planning (see functions of the
national planning commission as coordinator of federal government
economic and development programmes), debt management office, National
Council on Privatization, etc. As chairman of National Planning (with
Ministers of Finance, Agriculture, CBN governor, etc as members), the VP
oversees the federal planning and coordination. Then the Constitution
mandates the VP as representative of the federal government to chair the
NEC, with only CBN governor and state governors as members—to
coordinate national economy between federal and states. No minister is a
member of NEC. Many people do not understand the logic of the design of
our constitution and the role of the VP. Of course, the buck stops on
the desk of Mr. President. Only the President and VP have our mandate to
govern us. Every other person is an adviser/assistant. I bet that you
will only appreciate this article AFTER you leave office. Now that you
are in power, truth will only hurt! Be assured that those of us who are
prepared to die for Nigeria will never spare you or anyone else this
bitter truth.
Nigeria must survive and prosper beyond Buhari or Jonathan!
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