The Cost of Postponing the 2015 Elections - J.J Omojuwa

"Let us wait till after the elections" is an expression that you are probably used to by now. Since last year, for most of us, the elections kept projects and programmes at bay. The reason is simple enough. There remains a lot of uncertainty around Nigeria's politics and electoral process. No one knows what would happen in the event of a badly organised election. No one knows where violence would erupt in the event of perceived rigging or the inability of supporters of certain candidates to take the results. So the safe way for many was to "let us wait till after the elections."

In case you are wondering if that matters, it does. They may not openly admit it, a lot of multinational companies held back new investments because they were waiting to see what became of Nigeria post-2015 elections. Many programmes and projects got moved from January to March and beyond. This was done with the understanding that by then, the uncertainty would have given way to a form of fluid certainty. All of these were before the elections were moved solely for political reasons. Those who were worried about Nigeria before now have a much more government backed reason to be wary of new investments. That short statement by US Secretary of State, Senator John Kerry would have influenced the decision of many businesses including those of non-Americans.

We keep missing out on one simple fact: it is Nigeria's election, but this has an international bearing. The postponement further dented the numbers around the rating of "political instability" in Nigeria. For a long while we have been considered an unstable democracy. That postponement removed every doubt. The postponement was instigated by the office of the National Security Adviser (The NSA). This office is under the Presidency.  While many in Nigeria would have read the news as "NSA suggests that elections be postponed"  others abroad saw it as "Nigeria's President set to postpone elections." This was one extra gaffe that should never have happened. As a country, we have more than enough negative perceptions to battle across the world, being seen as a country where the sanctity of the electoral process is not respected should not be one of them.

While most of the news report around Senator John Kerry's visit focused on ensuring Nigeria conducting a peaceful, free and fair election, the Secretary of State had made it clear a postponement would be seen as a form of political interference. As usual, the Americans were ahead of most Nigerians on the plan of government to postpone the elections. In the end, the interest of President Goodluck Jonathan prevailed over the collective interest of Nigerians. If indeed the military runs Boko Haram over the next six weeks than they have done over the last six years, there would be some justification for the postponement. That would not of course mean that those who have always suspected the government of complicity in the ongoing war on terror won't have more ammunition to play with.

The postponement remains awkward. No one expects Boko Haram to be defeated in six weeks. Except of course the president and the military know something they haven't  told Nigerians about the so-called war on terror. Fingers crossed. If this postponement was about killing the momentum of the opposition, the opposite has so far been the case. I have seen people who were on the fence with respect to their political leaning immediately jump down the fence to General Buhari's side.

If that doesn't say much, what would you say about erstwhile Jonathan supporters who felt slighted by political intention of the postponement hence decided the president wasn't who they thought he was? I know three people who switched sides yesterday and immediately started campaigning for General Buhari with the same passion they used in campaigning for President Jonathan. You probably know one or two people in both situations. This is normal and must have been expected. The question should then be, "what is the real reason behind the postponement?"

Whatever that is, Nigerians are watching, the international community was naturally alerted by the postponement. If the time is up for this administration as it does look, the actors inside it must focus on preparing to leave. The desires of the people of Nigeria, that same desire that had them protesting to make then Vice President Jonathan become acting president, that same desire that sent them to the polls to vote President Jonathan in 2011, that same desire has come to the fore again.

If the voice of the people prevailed in 2011 when it favoured the incumbent, that voice will prevail again whether or not it does not favour the incumbent. Any attempt to play games against the interest of the Nigerian people will cost all and sundry. No one knows how much it will cost everyone. The better option is to let the process play itself out without diabolical games. This can't be such a hard thing to do. Is it?

Credit: J.J Omojuwa/Metrepole